Big Oak Flat, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

985
FXUS66 KSTO 261951
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1251 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Near to below-normal temperatures expected into next week breezy
onshore winds at times. Chances for afternoon and evening
mountain thunderstorms this weekend. Potential for mountain
thunderstorm chances next week, especially by mid-week. A gradual
warming trend returns next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

* This Weekend:
 - Chances (15-30%) for isolated to scattered mountain showers and
   thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Highest potential
   over the southern Cascades, Sierra crest and Coastal Range.
 - Main storm hazards include lightning, brief heavy rain, gusty
   winds, small hail, and possible fire starts.
 - A stray shower or thunderstorm may drift into far western
   portions of the northern Sacramento Valley this afternoon
   (10-15% probability) as thunderstorms develop over the Coast
   Range.
 - Mountain thunderstorm chances decrease on Sunday to 10-20%.
   Highest potential over the Coast Range, southern Cascades, and
   Sierra crest, mainly from Plumas County northward.
 - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in the
   mountains into the weekend due to the lightning threat and any
   strikes outside the main precipitation core will pose the
   threat for fire starts.
 - Afternoon highs in the 80s and low 90s throughout the Valley as
   below normal highs continue.

* Next Week:
 - Slight warming trend next week, but highs will remain below
   normal.
 - Periodically breezy onshore flow expected during the
   afternoons and evenings next week.
 - Mountain thunderstorm potential generally less than 10% Monday
   and Tuesday.
 - Increased potential for mountain thunderstorms by the middle of
   next week during the afternoon and evening hours (10-20%
   probability Wednesday-Thursday).

.Changes from previous forecast...
 - Minimal changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours across
Interior NorCal. Isolated to scattered mountain thunderstorms may
cause MVFR/IFR conditions until around 03z-06z Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorms possible in the northern Sacramento Valley through
03Z Sunday. For the Valley, south to southwest surface winds
generally less than 12 kts with gusts up to 15 to 20 kts between
22Z Saturday and 06Z Sunday. For the Delta vicinity, sustained
winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts at times. Potential for
MVFR ceilings from 12Z to 16Z Sunday in the Delta and adjacent
Valley locations.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$